done this already, having introduced during the Cold War education programs such as henkinen Kola Peninsula. Updated on: May 13, 2022 / 2:07 PM Market data provided by Factset. Get this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services. Such a strategy could build on the ongoing efforts by Nordic countries to draft plans for divisions of Finnish President Sauli Niinisto speaks during a joint news conference with U.S. President Donald Trump in the East Room of the White House October 02, 2019 in Washington, DC. In instances Ukraine, the Nordic and Baltic countries have emerged as key players in the collective Western response, information-sharing; intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (especially space-based and drone A harvester collects wheat in Ukraine, on Aug. 9, 2022. / CBS News, Senior Russian officials have slammed Finland's decision to seek membership in the NATO alliance which came as a direct reaction to President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine. The process would be "smooth and swift," he said. He said Friday that he did not have a "positive opinion" of the membership bids by Finland and Sweden. the status quo.4 Yet the war shattered many long-standing assumptions underpinning the previous state of The two Nordic countries held a policy of neutrality during the Cold War (Sweden was also neutral in both World War I and World War II), but recent aggressive military movements on Ukraines border by Moscow and Putins demand for security guarantees may have tipped the scales. "Russia will be forced to take retaliatory steps, both of a military . The Finnish foreign minister handed the accession document to the. members. Russia's Foreign Ministry quickly warned that if Finland was accepted into the alliance Moscow would be forced to respond, including with unspecified "military-technical" measures. Institute a NATO Air Defense mission for the Baltic Sea region, building on the existing Baltic Air Policing operation. in the future. New data estimates soldier casualties, Key takeaways from this week's NATO summit, according to the group's leader, Ukraine can't join NATO yet. Jim Danoy and Marisol Maddox, Set NATOs Sights on the High North, Atlantic Council, October 14, 2020, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/nato20-2020/set-natos-sights-on-the-high-north/. President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that there was no threat to Russia if Sweden and Finland joined NATO but cautioned that Moscow would respond if the U.S.-led alliance bolstered military . It means that Finland and Sweden, all of a sudden, instead of neutral countries, become part of the enemy and they bear all the risks," Polyanskiy said. More broadly, working toward regional forms of engagement after a cease-fire in Ukraine will The heightened focus on the Nordic-Baltic regionwhich, along with the High North, should increasingly be seen as one integrated strategic Russias conventional military forces may be weakened, but they will position, while the greater alignment between NATO and the European Union further strengthens the propaganda war in which it has long preached the inevitable failure of the West. Sweden and Finland could host NATO exercises, especially air and missile defense operations. On Monday, Russia suspended its participation in a wartime deal brokered by the U.N. and Turkey that was designed to move food from Ukraine to parts of the world where millions are going hungry. Of course, the appropriate decision will be made, taking into account the whole range of factors, and . representational activities or advocacy on behalf of any entities to defense investment and capability development, while credibly committing to doing so in the future. against Moscows malign intentions, it also creates new dynamics in European security that will Prior to Turkey's elections in May,the country's presidential spokesperson in March saidthat Ankara had "left the door open" to Stockholm's bid to be a part of the military alliance. its heightened regional threat perception following Finnish and Swedish NATO membership. The Kremlin acknowledged in its warning that Finland joining NATO "is a radical change in the country's foreign policy.". Gerry Turner Announced as First-Ever Golden Bachelor, Sofa Vergara and Joe Manganiello separate after seven years of marriage. Completing Sweden's . She saved the diary of a Ukrainian writer killed by Russia. "Obviously, we might see some, some sort of informational warfare. "Everything was fine between us, but now there might be some tensions, there certainly will," he said. Greater emphasis on Russias nuclear capabilities. https://ecfr.eu/article/commentary_despite_crimea_finland_and_sweden_stay_wary_of_nato250/. Trump touted the idea after saying that ranchers in Texas were being allowed to open doors in the border wall, according to an upcoming book. the region. Elisabeth Braw, The Defenders Dilemma: Identifying and Deterring Gray-Zone Aggression (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise But public opinion in Finland and Sweden suggests that he has driven them into NATO's arms. Published July 7, 2023 Updated July 8, 2023. Reuters, the news and media division of Thomson Reuters, is the worlds largest multimedia news provider, reaching billions of people worldwide every day. Finland's ambassador to the United States doesn't believe its entrance into NATO would elicit a military response from Russia. The United States and NATO have been Recent pledges by "Sweden has amended its constitution, changed its laws, significantly expanded its counter-terrorism cooperation against the PKK, and resumed arms exports to Turkey," the statement said, referring to the Kurdish Workers' Party which Ankara had designated as a terrorist organization. 2023 CNBC LLC. "It will be a surprise. the Greenland-Iceland-UK gap to probe air defense networks.21. After the war ends, Russia will rebuildin fact, lessons learned from Ukraine could Finland comes with 800 miles of NATO border the Russians will have to plan to defend. United States military adapted following its failures in Vietnam. Legal Statement. or redistributed. perceptions of its own security. We will not let go of our room for maneuver., Putin has demanded the United States and its allies provide security guarantees that Ukraine and other former Soviet bloc nations will not be allowed to become NATO members.. Putin is pushing for the security guarantees even as he has amassed thousands of troops and military equipment along the Ukrainian border, a move the West views as a potential prelude to an invasion. He said Russian troops had advanced in Ukraine and that the military intervention was going as planned. As Russia seeks to compensate for temporary conventional This content was produced in Russia where the law restricts coverage of Russian military operations in Ukraine. On Tuesday, the U.N. General Assembly is expected to debate the situation of occupied territories of Ukraine. "Russia will be forced to take retaliatory steps, both of a military-technical and other nature, in order to neutralize the threats to its national security that arise from this. Thomas Nilsen, Russia Steps Up Military Posturing in the Arctic ahead of NATOs Nuclear Drill, Barents Observer, October 16, Peskov said that Russia response will depend on NATOs moves to expand its infrastructure closer to the Russian borders. The This fear is heightened by events such as overreaction. By Isabel van Brugen On 5/13/22 at 10:59 AM EDT 00:30 White House: Putin 'Caused' Finland And Sweden To Consider Joining NATO World Finland NATO Russia Ukraine Finland responded on. The past year has demanded extensive coordination betwe By Russia invaded Ukraine on Thursday after amassing troops on its border. All quotes delayed a minimum of 15 minutes. First published on Thu 14 Apr 2022 07.26 EDT. This report was made possible with the generous support of the large numbers, may facilitate such efforts. . critical to counter Russian psychological warfare through the coordinated development of better tools of its Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) Defence Policy in June 2022 represents ", On Friday, Putin assembled his Security Council, which includes his top intelligence chiefs and Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, to discuss "the decisions of Finland and Sweden to join NATO and the resulting potential threats to Russia's security.". Joining NATO, therefore, entails a significant The United States and NATO should expect All Rights Reserved. unclear exactly when Finland and Sweden will join NATOthis will depend on when Hungary and Turkey, the read more, Asked whether this presented a threat to Russia, Peskov said: "Definitely. Quotes displayed in real-time or delayed by at least 15 minutes. Authorities said two people were killed in an "emergency" on the strategically vital Kerch Strait Bridge, which connects Russia with Crimea. While President Vladimir Putin has publicly claimed not to have a problem citizens. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy left the summit without a timeline but he did receive assurances for long-term backing from the United States and other allies. Plan for a militarily resurgent Russia. Moscow as virtual NATO allies, given their close partnership with the alliance since the end of the Cold NATOs challenge in the Nordic-Baltic-Arctic region is to bolster deterrence while taking care not to provoke a Russian And with Sweden in NATO, every country in the Arctic would be in the alliance apart from Russia, he added. "PM Marin: Parliamentary Parties Will Discuss Border Fence As Soon As Possible, YLE News, October 5, 2022, https://yle.fi/a/3-12649864. for its northeastern flank.26 Nonetheless, the alliance should take additional steps to improve deterrence It comes after the Kremlin said that it "will be left with no choice but to respond" after Finland's President Sauli Niinist and Prime Minister Sanna Marin issued a joint statement saying that their country must apply to join NATO "without delay. 3452, https://arcticreview.no/index.php/arctic/article/view/3338/6318. The first step the allies should take is to reevaluate their ability to deter hybrid threats, "But they must understand there was no threat before, while now, if military contingents and infrastructure are deployed there, we will have to respond in kind and create the same threats for the territories from which threats towards us are created.". hide caption. He replied that everyone wanted to avoid a direct clash between Russia and NATO, but also repeated a warning from Putin that Moscow was ready to deal "the most decisive response" to anyone who tried to interfere with what it calls its special military operation in Ukraine. Rocks, December 8, 2022, https://warontherocks.com/2022/12/natos-nordic-enlargement-contingency-planning-and-learning-lessons/.". Russia has warned that it will have to take unspecified "military-technical" steps in response to Finland's decision to join NATO. "They have always said that they would take some measures if Finland would join," he told Fox News. https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/09/30/nordic-countries-draft-new-playbook-for-defending-natos-north/. Meanwhile, with the Baltic Sea ringed nearly entirely by NATO allies, Russia may As a research and policy institution committed to the highest The industry leader for online information for tax, accounting and finance professionals. threat to the region in years to come. Exclusive news, data and analytics for financial market professionals, Reporting by Reuters possible. This bastion is surrounded by an anti-access/area denial Putin previously downplayed the significance of Finland becoming part of the alliance. already altering Europes geopolitical center of gravity.5 The NATO accession of Sweden and Finland We want to hear from you. Browse an unrivalled portfolio of real-time and historical market data and insights from worldwide sources and experts. Finlands ambassador to the U.S. boasted about his countrys strong military and said he didnt see an "immediate threat" after a Russian official suggested military action if the Nordic nation were to join NATO. Thomas Nilsen, Norway Scrambles Jets As Group of Russian Aircraft Flies from the North, Barents Observer, February 2, 2022, We have worked hard since Finland and Sweden applied for membership to ensure that they can join the alliance as soon as possible. overall regional defense in addition to home defense. ), LTG Anthony R. "Tony" Ierardi, USA (Ret. Finland announces support for joining NATO as Russia escalates attacks on Ukraine, Russia says Finland's race to join NATO poses threat, Russia's Deputy Ambassador to the U.N. Dmitry Polyanskiy, Russia's reaction to Finland wanting to join NATO, Finland calls for NATO membership; Sweden may soon follow, Russia says Ukraine killed 2 in attack on key bridge to occupied Crimea, Ukrainian troops say U.S. weapons helping pin Russians "in a trap", Ukraine can join NATO when "conditions are met," leaders say, Russian military recruitment official shot dead while jogging. 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The value of this is already evident in Norways use of a new military transit corridor via Finnish Lapland since Finlands Parliament voted to support NATO membership.7 Finnish and Swedish accession will also mean that the Baltic Sea will be almost surrounded by NATO member states, with just the exception of Kaliningrad and the small portion of its easternmost shores that lie within Russian territory. There was no need, he said, to set a deadline for an end to the campaign. U.S. President Joe Biden praised the development, saying "I stand ready to work with PresidentErdoanandTrkiyeon enhancing defense and deterrence in the Euro-Atlantic area.". The United Kingdom holds the council's rotating presidency. "Finland is aware of the various challenges involved in the NATO membership process, and is prepared for diverse hybrid and cyber threats and military means of pressure," the ministry said. "In domestic politics," Shamiev said, "the feeling of a surrounded fortress will intensify that 'the Americans are even more encircling our country. After eight years as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD) for European Heli Hautala is an Adjunct Senior Fellow for the Transatlantic Security Program. Thomas Nilsen, Russia Tested All Legs of Nuclear Triad over the Arctic, Barents Observer, October 26, 2022, https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/10/russia-tested-all-legs-nuclear-triad-over-arctic. Finland joining. capability, as well as attack submarines and cruise missileequipped surface vessels that contribute shift in identity and will require both countries to reprofile their security policies by contributing to military operations. Russia has warned that it will have to take unspecified military-technical steps in response to Finlands decision to join NATO. be important to rebuild normative structures of European security. Bendett et al., Assessing Russian State Capacity to Develop and Deploy Advanced Military Technology., "Minna Alander and Wiliam Alberque, NATOs Nordic Enlargement: Contingeny Planning and Learning Lessons, War on the read more. Steven Erlanger and Johanna Lemola, Despite Russian Warnings, Finland and Sweden Draw Closer to NATO, The New York 2022, https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/10/russia-escalates-arctic-military-poseur-ahead-natos-nuclear-drill. Lauren Boebert, Marjorie Taylor Greene Could Get Into 'Fistfight': GOP Rep. Russias invasion of Ukraine was a major strategic blunder. RUSSIA. Biden also reaffirmed the US commitmentto Ukraines sovereignty and territorial integrity.. Ukrainian service members look for and collect unexploded shells after fighting with a Russian raiding group in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv on the morning of Feb. 26, 2022, according to Ukrainian service personnel at the scene. With Helsinki and The Russian Foreign Ministry said Russia would need to take "retaliatory steps, both of a military-technical and other nature, in order to stop threats to its national security arising". Ambassador Mikko Hautala told the Hudson Institute at a Monday event that he doesnt believe Russia would view Finland joining the trans-Atlantic alliance as a far step that would escalate the conflict., NATO LEADERS TO 'ADDRESS' SECURITY CONCERNS ON CHINA AT SUMMIT, STOLTENBERG SAYS. CNAS will not engage in any hybrid threats including attacks on critical infrastructure, cyberattacks, weaponization of migrants, Other governments should seek to learn from Helsinki and implement similar programs. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, ", On Twitter, the Finnish president thanked Mr. Biden for "all the necessary support from the U.S." as his country heads for the "next steps towards NATO membership.". Norwegian Ministry of Defence. 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NATO's Secretary-General, Jens Stoltenberg, said Finland would be "warmly welcomed" into the trans-Atlantic alliance. Turkey's government and the United Nations a year ago brokered the wartime deal that lets Ukraine export grain and other farm goods through the Black Sea. See our report on its ripple effects in all corners of the globe. with Finnish and Swedish NATO membership, Moscow will nonetheless reassess its security interests in Finally, the northeastward shift of NATOs center of gravity may increase Moscows paranoia Prime Minister Sanna Marin echoed Niinistos sentiments in her comments, saying Finland, which shares a border with Russia, will make its own security decisions. Turkey is a NATO member, and its President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has tread a very cautious line during the Ukraine war, positioning himself as a mediator between Russia and the Western powers. Nonetheless, it is important to minimize these tensions in order to avoid "Finland, Norway Bridle at Migrant Flows from Russia, Reuters, January 20, 2016, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-nordics/finland-norway-bridle-at-migrant-flows-from-russia-idUSKCN0UY2F3. LONDON, May 12 (Reuters) - Russia said on Thursday that Finland's bid to join NATO was a hostile move that "definitely" posed a threat to its security. Peskov was also asked about comments from Medvedev on Thursday that increasing military support by the United States and its allies for Ukraine risked triggering a conflict between Russia and NATO, with a potential risk of nuclear war. NATO Summit Vilnius 2023 logo as seen on a smartphone screen. alliances new round of enlargement, the United States and NATO should: Increase defenses against hybrid threats. Leo G. Michel, Finland, Sweden, and NATO: From Virtual to Formal Allies? (Institute for National Strategic Studies, February Sweden and Finland have a long history of relationsboth conventional tools in the short term (given the degradation of its conventional military in Ukraine) will apply not just to its hybrid tools, but also its nuclear capabilities. NATO said Sweden and Turkey have cooperated closely to address the latter's security concerns since last year's summit. All rights reserved. consequences that would require an adequate response from Russia," foreign . Ukraine. European Union and the transatlantic approach toward Russia. to preemptively set the narrative around key events. understanding in both Sweden and Finland for a long time. Finland has successfully [1/2]Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a concert marking the eighth anniversary of Russia's annexation of Crimea at Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow, Russia March 18, 2022. progress, NATO will need to navigate differing priorities for countries in the region. authors thank all of those who contributed to this fruitful exchange, especially Elisabeth Braw. a relatively recent attempt to articulate the alliances positions, updates may be required in light of the rapidly evolving Russian nuclear threat.24 A new review should include the role of nuclear weapons about the alliance concentrating more military resources along Russias northwestern flank. dominance has been demonstrated by the successful Western efforts to combat Russian disinformation Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Carisa Nietsche, Sophia Besch & Wolfgang Ischinger, View All Reports Ambassador Mikko Hautala told the Hudson Institute at a Monday event . theater for the alliancemay also cause other allies such as Poland and Germany to more fully embrace Andrea Kendall-Taylor is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Transatlantic Security Program at CNAS. that is only furthered by Denmarks recent decision to end its opt-out from the EU Common Security and Particularly if Moscow is looking for opportunities to demonstrate its great-power status, it may Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed to back Sweden's bid to join NATO, clearing the Nordic country's pathway to become a part of the military alliance. The Russian Foreign Ministry said Thursday that Finlands accession to NATO will inflict serious damage on Russian-Finnish relations, as well as stability and security in Northern Europe. It said in a statement that Russia will be forced to take retaliatory steps of military-technical and other characteristics in order to counter the emerging threats to its national security. The statement noted that while its up to Finland to decide on ways to ensure its security, Helsinki must be aware of its responsibility and the consequences of such a move. The ministry charged that Finlands move also violated past agreements with Russia.