Does he want to carve out territory, like the Russian-speaking eastern regions, which border Russia? It is possible that the population in Ukraines east and south will be hostile but relatively passive. Putin may well have decided to take down the Ukrainian government and put in place one beholden to Russia. Dec 22 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Russia wants an end to the war in Ukraine and that this would inevitably involve a diplomatic solution. Washington and the West now face the challenge of shaping a response in light of Russias August actions. Christophe Petit Tesson/Pool via AP. It sees the presence of NATO on its western flank as a serious security threat. Putin has at least three endgames. While we may be thoroughly and rightly unhappy with Russian behavior in Georgia, it makes no sense to ignore these vital interests. As the Russians struggled in the Putin appeared to claim all of the former Soviet Union as 'historic Russia' Credit: AP Between 1990 and 1991, the Soviet Union fell apart, creating the countries of Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. Some suggest punishment and isolating Moscow. Putin would like to break the government in Kyiv, install a friendly regime that is demilitarized and neutral and then turn to bargaining with NATO over new security arrangements that would be more friendly to Moscow. It demands that Nato return to its pre-1997 borders. Nichols asked: What happens now, however, amid heightened tensions, if Russia shoots down a German or Dutch jet on Ukraines border? Theres also the one in which he does a good deal of damage to Ukraine, installs a friendly regime there and settles in to manage Western sanctions and dueling military buildups in Europe for the foreseeable future. The operation in Kazakhstan last month is probably the template he would follow. The Russians concluded that they could basically do this again if they wanted. Evgeniy Maloletka/AP. Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Seven years ago today, al-Qaeda launched attacks against New York and Washington, and caused a fundamental change in how the United States views threats to its national security. On March 4, Russia seized Zaporizhzhia, one of Europes largest nuclear power plants. Experts said it is too early to know Putins long-range plans, but if he has designs on other nations, Moldova, which borders Ukraine to the west, and Georgia, which once also flirted with NATO membership, are possible targets. These arrangements might include restrictions on troops and weapons in the NATO countries that joined after 1997 and steps to turn Ukraine into a vassal state. Russia was unable to prevent Montenegro and North Macedonia from joining NATO in 2017 and 2020 respectively, even after an attempted coup in the former with involvement by Russian operatives in 2016. After the U.S. thought it had won the Cold War, it relegated Russia to the status of a strategically irrelevant country whose interests could be ignored. Since then, Russia has experienced a remarkable economic resurgence and demonstrated that assumptions in the 1990s about its long-term weakness were not well-grounded. This week brought an abrupt and horrifying answer to a mystery that had absorbed the world for months, as Russian troops massed around the Ukrainian border: Was Russian President Vladimir Putin really trying to start a war? Putin has declared there would be no occupation, so it seems he plans to install a new government and leave. I suspect Putin has several endgame options. The 1990s were a grim period: adjusting to the loss of empire; an economic collapse worse than the Great Depression; and a political system that, while incorporating democratic practices, often appeared chaotic and corrupt. Who has to leave the Federal Reserve next? Despite this, changing Russian attitudes will be difficult. The two leaders signed the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty and issued joint statements outlining broad areas for cooperation, from economics and energy to missile defense and people-to-people contacts. One final point: the next president will have to work closely with Europe to forge a common Western position. At the same time, the Russian government carefully scrutinizes and, in some cases, limits or thwarts parallel attempts to invest in Russia. The next goal is to get the West to recognize that Russia has a right to a sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space and that NATO and the EU should stop trying to engage these countries. To be sure, Russians today enjoy more individual liberties than during Soviet times. Frankly, it doesnt appear that [Putins] post-war political playbook is more thought through than the U.S. one was in Iraq. Having Russia at the table in a cooperative frame of mind is vastly preferable to a self-isolated, truculent Russia that tries to undermine those institutions or create alternatives. That may be one he finds more likely, and thinks he can live with. Yes, he says, Russia has felt more of a threat from the West in the past two years. This is about Putin subjugating Ukrainians into a sphere of Russianness. Russian leaders assert that no world problem can be resolved without their participation; simply being there appears important to Moscow, something seen as part of Russias due as a recovered great power. If they can be moved from their current impasse, it would be useful to explore with allies the possibility of a more productive NATO-Russia relationship. The Russians do not understand it that way. Putins speech announcing what he called a special military operation made clear that he wants more control over Ukraine and expects a confrontation with the West and NATO. Russias disinformation efforts have begun franchising their model by creating or sponsoring African hosts for the pro-Russian and anti-West messaging. This would create incentives for the Russians, who have far more influence in Tehran than we do, to press the Iranians to abandon their long-range missile program. Ukraine is the fulcrum. Beyond ratcheting up sanctions and adding export controls, we can likely expect cyberattacks from the U.S. on Russia, but we must be prepared to absorb counter attacks on U.S. infrastructure in response. What we need to pay attention to is not so much sanctions while I am in favor of them, I dont think they will affect Russian behavior much but rather how the Ukrainian military does on the ground in terms of inflicting costs on Putins forces. What we need now is a similar combination of determination, skill and patience. The Russians would like better relations with the West, but they insist that that be on Russias terms. The upshot: Putin may have decided on objectives in Ukraine that will amount to a burning of bridges with the West and is prepared to pay the economic, strategic and political price. Concerns have been raised about Russias ability to engage in cyberwarfare against the U.S. with experts offering security measures that can be taken. If we are not willing to put U.S. boots on Ukrainian soil, then sanctions are a start in terms of trying to punish the Kremlin and increasing the cost of continuing the war. The choice back then came down to two candidatesthe West-leaning Viktor Yushchenko and the Russia-leaning Viktor Yanukovych. This is not to fix all the blame for the August conflict on Russia. Russian oligarchs, who enjoy traveling in the West and keep much of their money here, may offer another pressure point. He and his advisers are probably not counting on that one, though, much as theyd like it. One other problem on the American side complicated management of U.S.-Russia relations. Molly McKew is a lecturer on Russian influence and the lead writer at greatpower.us. Moscow feels aggrieved by NATO actions over the past 15 years. WebRussias goal is a totally free hand to do as it pleases, while the West would be bound by the fear of losing business with Russia and treaties that for Moscow are mere scraps of paper. Putin, Vacroux said, has long said that the West has become weak and fractured. While Ukraine and the West try to avoid war, other questions loom. The international laws and charters that Russia helped draft have been set alight. Erdogan knows he needs to do something to create a bridge to the West. Since Russia invaded Ukraine last year, Turkey has occupied a unique middle ground Russia regularly has a seat when major issues are discussed, but Moscow has not always been a helpful participant. Hes manufacturing lies about Ukraine. James Goldgeier is a visiting scholar at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, a visiting fellow at the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution and a professor at the School of International Service at American University. U.S. exports were more than $65 billion, making China Americas third largest export market. The United States could ensure its security at a level of 1000 strategic warheads. Rajan Menon is a professor emeritus at the City College of New York/City University of New York, a senior research scholar at the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University, and director of the Grand Strategy program at Defense Priorities. The Kremlin decries efforts to limit or scrutinize the activities of Russian companies, for example, European questions regarding potential Gazprom investments in pipelines or energy distribution firms. | Russia issued an eight-point draft security pact for NATO by the end of December 2021. Second, how did the U.S. government reach the point in this key bilateral relationship where it has so few tools to influence Kremlin behavior? But he is likely underestimating Ukrainian resistance, the pain sanctions will inflict over time, and not only Western, but global horror at Russias cruel and unprovoked attack on its neighbor. Ukraine, which has unique political and cultural ties to both the West and Russia, has had a long and complex relationship with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Beyond that, its still unclear what Putins ultimate objectives are. What does Ukraine want? 62 Its limited offering to the Western Balkans countries seeking help from and membership in the EU has been modest at best by The 2014 Crimea crisis in Ukraine was seen as pushing Russia further into the arms of China, which offered Moscow economic and diplomatic support amid international isolation. For example, neither the Pentagon nor the Russian Ministry of Defense showed much interest in missile defense cooperation in 2002-2003, regardless of what the presidents said. If one truly sought to change the relationship qualitatively and build partnership relations, one could not win on every issue with Moscow. Anemic U.S.-Russian commercial relations fall well below their potential. This appears to include recognition of a Russian sphere of influence in the former Soviet space. Building areas of cooperation not only advances specific U.S. policy goals, but it can give Washington things to threaten should Moscow misbehave or better yet give reasons that dissuade Moscow from misbehaving in the first place. Relatively few Russians protested the roll-back, which included eliminating the direct election of regional governors, sharply reducing the independence of the judicial and legislative branches, and bringing the major television networks under Kremlin control. At the same time, the West retains an interest in Russian cooperation on numerous issues. Lilia Shevtsova is the author of Putins Russia. We've heard a lot about cluster bombs today after Vladimir Putin threatened to use Russian stockpiles of cluster bombs if Ukraine employs the ones it has been given Some areas of cooperation, such as controlling nuclear materials, make sense even if relations are at a low point. Of course, his calculations could go wrong, and Russia could pay a heavy price, but I think that Ukraine will be destroyed and there will be heavy costs on Europe, the U.S. and the rest of the world too. It has doggedly resisted any Moscow proposal that would affect that deployment plan. Putins interest in Ukraine is limited to the eastern, Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine, not Western Ukraine which has dominated Ukrainian politics since the Maidan revolution of 2014. Finding the combination of carrots and sticks to influence Moscow to adopt the right course poses a challenge and will require a subtle, nuanced approach. Putins Nazi rhetoric reveals his terrifying war aims in Ukraine. But the Russians in Ukraine have numerous advantages from language to local networks that the United States lacked in Iraq, so its possible they might succeed. A major goal of Russian foreign policy is to support the penetration of large companies, such as Gazprom, into global markets. Alex Lourie/Redux Pictures. The Kremlin feels its energy exports to Europe give it leverage to insist on its terms. So Russia sits at the table, even if it does not always exercise influence to promote solutions. He should return to the Reagan, Bush 41 and Clinton models for talking with Russian leaders. WebEventually, Russia erupted into a complicated Civil War, or more communing known and the Russian Revolution. In the aftermath of the Russian-Georgian conflict, NATO-Russia relations are at a standstill. In practical terms, the Russian-Georgian conflict killed that agreement for the current Congressional term, and the administration withdrew it. Putins Russia and Putin forced the West into a flurry of diplomacy with its massive troop buildup near Ukraine. The Russians object sharply. But the next administration should be able to employ deft diplomacy and a restored nuclear arms dialogue to give the broader relationship a badly needed boost, create a more positive atmosphere, and carve out space to make progress on other issues. Concern about breakout potential further fuels Russian suspicions ten missile interceptors today, but how many later on? The next administration should consider adjusting the pace of missile defense deployment in Central Europe. This results in part from their unhappiness at seeing new U.S. military infrastructure appear closer to their borders. Adding Moldova, with little territorial defense of its own, would not take long. Presidents George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton also gave arms control a special place in their dealings with Gorbachev and Yeltsin. The war Putin started does not make rational sense. Rising prices for natural gas and oil exports fueled the recovery. By 2013, that figure had shrunk by a fifth to $275 billion. Many of the key questions in U.S.-Russian relations bilateral issues, strategic arms control, missile defense, Iran and NATO enlargement have been handled by different interagency groups. But it is no more in the Wests power to hold the Russian Federation together than it was to hold the USSR together something American and European diplomats The Alliance has changed radically over the past 20 years. While the U.S. missile defense planned for Central Europe is aimed at Iran, not Russia, and the establishment of U.S. military headquarters in Bulgaria and Romania was driven by Middle East requirements, not Russia, Moscow sees things differently. What Russia does not want, Saunders stated, is outside actors interfering in its political and economic system. That actually means regime change. The full-scale invasion he launched in Ukraine Wednesday night answered that question and then posed another far graver mystery: What is his endgame? Eighty-one percent of people surveyed had a negative perception of the United States, while a mere 13 percent had a positive view. He hates these people. | | What does Russia want? Putin also demanded that Ukraine never join NATO nor have nuclear weapons stationed on its territory. Most other countries that might otherwise be candidates Poland and the Baltics are already NATO members. Russia right now does not have remotely enough forces in the region to subdue a country of nearly 40 million people. The State Department warned that the West has an array of tools to deploy against foreign companiesincluding in Chinathat help Russia evade punitive sanctions. With Russian troops in full-scale assault against Ukraine, a key step for the U.S. and its NATO allies should be tripling combat-ready troops in the Baltics and NATO-allied eastern Europe to deter any thought of a Ukraine-style incursion there. Second, the Russian atomic energy agency, RosAtom, wants to store nuclear waste from third-country reactors, an activity that it sees as worth tens of billions of dollars in a world where most prefer not to have nuclear waste in their backyard. He has said that he has no plans to occupy Ukraine, but will he at least try to install a Russia-friendly government? I think were all surprised at how overwhelming the Russian invasion has been. Knowing that the strategic depth quality and the sheer eclectic attitude of the leadership in Russia are staggering, relative to the quality of the leadership in the Woke Wild West, we can derive from the December 2021 ultimatum in form of two draft texts: Treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation on Security Guarantees, That requires, of course, that Russia accept and play by international norms and rules. Rajiv Sikri was a career diplomat with the Indian Foreign Service, including most recently as secretary in the Ministry of External Affairs and earlier as head of the Soviet and East European Department and political counselor in Moscow. We need to understand this better in Washington. By 2008, gross domestic product topped $1.3 trillion, four times the level in 1998. Russia has mobilized more than one hundred thousand troops along its border with Ukraine and is demanding major security concessions from NATO. Much will depend, however, on how much resistance he meets in Ukraine and how unified NATO remains through the crisis. Armored vehicles drive along a road in Armyansk in the northern part of Crimea, Russia. The latest: The Ukrainian military has launched a long-anticipated counteroffensive against occupying Russian forces, opening a crucial phase in the war But Russias broad geopolitical and economic interests with the Iranians mean that Russian diplomats spend as much time watering down proposals for UN sanctions against Iran as they do pressuring Tehran to end its nuclear enrichment effort. For the past several months, he has deliberately deceived people as to what his true intentions are. Russias assertive course has left the United States struggling for ideas on how to respond. Russia has over the past eight years applied even more intense pressure on Georgia, resorting to trade embargos, energy cut-offs, border closings, the occasional air raid and last month a full-scale military offensive. countrys turn away from Moscow since the Maidan square protests of 2014 as the outcome of a coup orchestrated by the West. Tensions along Russias border with Ukraine finally erupted into open warfare on 24 February 2022 as Vladimir Putin announced a special military operation in the Invasion will hurt the US and Europe. Such an offer would be good not just for reducing the nuclear threat to the United States. He should have known that Moscow would not accept a Georgian bid to change the status of South Ossetia by force. In 2007, two-way trade totaled $27 billion. An appropriate analogy is the 2003 race to Baghdad. He invaded Ukraine to win his war against the West. The Russians learned in Chechnya the same lesson that we learned in Mosul, which is its extremely difficult to hold cities, Vacroux said. Had Putin looked closely at these demands, he would have found them riddled with enough contradictions to delight any confirmed Marxist or Leninist. In diplomacy, style can matter as much as substance. Bush focused on Iraq; his administration did not see Russia as all that relevant for its key policy goals. Secondly, he hopes, by strangling Ukraine, to force the West to accept his ultimatum rebuilding in Europe a Yalta-esque order with spheres of influence and securing a Western pledge to not interfere in Russias geopolitical backyard. The less responsive the West is, the tighter will be the noose. But it wants to get paid and it wants to protect its investments. Speaking on Nothing short of a revanchist imperialist, The world (or at least part of it) playing by. He previously worked at both the Soviet and Russian foreign ministries and participated in arms control negotiations, including on START I and START II. Summits typically included two or three working sessions, each of which could range in length from 90 minutes to three hours. W hen Vladimir Putin declared war early Thursday morning, he did not set Ukraine as his ultimate target. Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvilis decision to send his army into South Ossetia on August 7 was ill-advised. China has a strategic interest in Putins war on Ukraine being victorious but it doesnt want to risk Western sanctions on its own economy. Third, Russia wants a seat when major European or global issues are being decided and to have its views accommodated. Russias unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has set alight the bloodiest conflict in Europe since World War II. WebWhat Russia wants is, of course, closely linked to how Russia is perceived. This is Putins Critical Ukraine Theory. It hit $357 Can the Russians take the capital of Kiev, and, if so, what happens there, both to the city itself and to the government? Despite this, over the past decade, Russia has continuously violated the norms and principles that contributed to a stable and predictable European security order. And it is unclear how Putin views Russias future geopolitical place in the world. One cannot help feeling that in order to subdue Ukraine, Putin has risked both Russias domestic stability and its future status in the global power system. Wellington led a small army ashore in Iberia--a "contingent" in Corbett's lingo--to the west of imperial France. In his pretext speech and declaration of war, Putin described Finland and maybe Sweden as part of his domain, and he discussed the Baltic states and Poland, which are NATO members, as results of the Second World War that belong to Moscow. That has Hes taking Ukraine and making it a boogeyman. Caucasus Europe European Union Georgia Russia. The primary motivation for NATO enlargement has not been anti-Russian but to foster a more stable and secure Europe. The Kremlins endgame, beyond ensuring the survival of Putins regime, is to create a multipolar world where autocratic Russia and rising China challenge Western liberal hegemony; the goal is nothing short of the establishment of a new global order where might is right, and state sovereignty, individual rights and freedoms, and human rights are wrong. Russian tanks during military drills at a training ground in Belarus, Feb. 19, 2022. Moscow insists on this regardless of whether or not it can bring something to the table to facilitate resolution of the problem. Thomas Graham served as senior director for Russia on the National Security Council staff during the George W. Bush administration and is a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Fourth, Russia does not seek isolation and wants better relations with Europe and the United States, but on its terms. He has previously served as a senior adviser to the undersecretary of State for arms control and international security and is the co-author, with Timothy Colton, of Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia. It is important to make clear to the Kremlin the unacceptability of its assertion of a sphere of influence that denies its neighbors the freedom to choose their own foreign policy course. But Europe has levers that the United States lacks to affect Russian behavior. Russias president says he wants the de-Nazification of Ukraine. These are numbers that the Kremlin may find hard to ignore. In January 2015, negative perceptions of the West in Russia rose to the highest level ever recorded in the history of Russian public opinion polling. LONDON, March 17 (Reuters) - Russia warned the United States on Thursday that Moscow had the might to put the world's pre-eminent superpower in its The Russians value a nuclear arms dialogue with Washington in part because such a dialogue acknowledges Russias standing as a nuclear superpower. Third, how should we now think about the balance between punishing and engaging Russia? Unlike the United States, however, Russia lacks resources for such an involvement and especially to sustain economic isolation. Putin is not about messaging as much as he is about doing something, and we should focus more on deeds than words, Ryan said. NATO should ask itself, however, whether yielding to Russian pressure tactics would be wise. The Kremlin unleashed an all-out propaganda campaign in support of Yanukovych. He does not want them to exist. As the Russians struggled in the 1990s to transform their political institutions, they welcomed democracy promotion assistance. But the system lacked a mechanism to review the overall U.S.-Russia relationship. His formula is simple: threaten maximal use of force to put the opponent in a mindset of seeking to avoid escalation. First, Russia wants to develop its own political and economic model, free of criticism from the West. what does russia want from ukraine? First, Russia wants to develop its own political and economic model, free of criticism from the West. I think he will try to achieve Russias military objectives as quickly as possible and then withdraw. They associate democracy not just with chaos and corruption, but with economic uncertainty and the countrys economic collapse. I just dont see the day after strategy, from the Russian point of view.. If he can do that, he can justify to his own people that this is a country that shouldnt exist anyway. Despite promises to Putin, the White House failed to move to persuade Congress to graduate Russia from the Jackson-Vanik amendment. The next president will need to engage his Russian counterpart to define the future of U.S.-Russian relations. First, a 123 agreement would let U.S. companies engage in civil nuclear cooperation with Russia as their European competitors do. I think, however, that it remains unlikely that Putin will do this by occupying the whole of Ukraine in the short run. Proposed measures include halting ongoing diplomatic discussions, booting Russia out of the G-8, and blocking Russian entry into the World Trade Organization and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The 123 agreement would create a framework; Washington would then have to approve each decision to ship nuclear waste to RosAtom for storage. 02/25/2023. How will the Supreme Courts affirmative action ruling affect college admissions? The Russians want no lectures, no advice, no criticism about how they structure their internal institutions. The U.S. isnt the only power threatened by Russias influence in Africait seems Russia is looking to muscle in on some of Chinas influence on the continent as well. A personal relationship between the two presidents that was by all appearances extremely warm did little to arrest the downslide in U.S.-Russian relations. The Price of Neglect in U.S.-Russian Relations. Can we get there? Very unlikely but no longer outside the realm of possibility. Its clear now that Putins endgame is nothing short of a revanchist imperialist remaking of the globe to take control of the entire former Soviet space. By contrast, while George Bush and Putin met far more frequently than their predecessors almost 30 times by one count their meetings usually were short. From a British perspective the current perception is not a good one, whatever the perpetually diplomatic BUT. Russian troops can be handy. | On the other hand, does isolating Moscow offer the wisest course? The intelligence community should be asked to estimate when Iran might produce a missile capable of reaching the United States or most of Europe. Theres the one where everyone capitulates and he is proven correct, and he goes on to enjoy a friendly Ukraine and a cowed, reeducated Europe. This is smart for the Russian economy, as Russian companies derive significant profits from overseas operations and access to foreign capital markets. When Russia is at its weakest, the Rostov-on-Don line is historically the furthest east that Western influence has reached. In the coming years, Russia faces significant vulnerabilities: overdependence on energy exports, lack of a diversified economy, fragile infrastructure, abysmal demographics. The scale of Russian operations made clear that they were not just about South Ossetia. In September 2014, Russia launched the Minsk peace process in order to save face and use diplomatic means to deter Ukraine from further attempts to liberate Donbass. The large cities may prove a particular problem, Vacroux said. Threats to exclude Russia may well be useful, because the Kremlin cares. At the same time, the more assertive Russian stance in the region raised alarm in Washington. Alexander Zemlianichenko Jr./AP. Just two weeks ago, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov made this point explicitly. After 2002, however, the two presidents became distracted with other issues. He said concrete steps to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin should be taken. It would also add economic ballast that could cushion the overall relationship against unpredictable swings caused by political differences. Donbas is predominantly Russian-speaking and after Russia seized Crimea in 2014, its proxy forces captured more than a third of Ukraine's east in a war that never came to an end. Difficult problems thereafter piled up, with no resolution, including: Irans nuclear effort, U.S. missile defense deployments in Europe, the fate of strategic arms control, Kosovos status, NATO outreach, and the adapted treaty on conventional forces in Europe. Moreover, building a successful U.S.-Russian relationship, one in which cooperative issues increasingly outnumber problem areas and in which Russian help can be secured on questions of key interest, requires letting Moscow sometimes win. The National Security Council needs to counteract stove-piping with an effective mechanism for taking an overall look at issues on the U.S.-Russia agenda, setting priorities, and identifying possible trade-offs.

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